The nature of most HC1 plays is that we’re grappling in the dark, with every chance that the horse is just not very able and runs a clunker. Below are a few more Instant Expert grids, and your challenge is to decide which horses offered playable value, and which races looked too competitive and should have been passed. Even if we’re right about the true odds being 7/2, we’re still looking at 77.7% losers. But, over a thousand £1 bets, those 22.3% winners (223) will return £1,115 – or a profit of 11.5%.
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Bet placed via Andy’s Bet Club, good luck!
The thrice-winner sample size is only 70 (all other samples across the table were in at least multiple hundreds and generally thousands). The percentages in isolation are irrelevant, especially when comparing different going descriptions. This is because less extreme going conditions tend to have bigger field sizes and, therefore, smaller win percentages.
Types of Horse Race Bets
This is perhaps the simplest of the five differentiators. We’re looking for races where all runners are exposed; that is, they’re experienced and have shown pretty much all they have to the handicapper Bolts Up Daily already. In such races, we are not expecting a progressive horse to leap forward seven to ten pounds; rather, we expect that the horse best suited to conditions will have a great chance…
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Unlucky not to win the NH Chase at Cheltenham a couple seasons ago and trainer’s UK strike rate is very good. Grosvenor Sport is offering new customers the chance to get £30 in FREE BETS when you bet £10 on horse racing. Henry Dwyer’s charge had finished fourth on her British debut in the Temple Stakes at Haydock last month, but she clearly enjoyed the faster ground at Royal Ascot to become Australia’s sixth winner of this race by a length. “He has been good all year, at Doncaster and then Sandown, and he ran a great race in the Lockinge where he came right away from all the horses he raced with.
Chase A Fortune
Make 20/1 your cutoff in all-age handicap hurdles, and beware the shortie. This time, 84 horses have worn them without a win, and just six places. Conversely, 11 of the 84 blinkered horses (one also wearing a hood) made the frame, and four won. Two of the 45 hood wearers also won, another eight placing; while the visor went 0 from 21, no places. The fairer sex have recorded just one placed effort from 27 starters in the ten year review period. That 3.7% place strike rate (and 0% win rate) compares with a 16.4% place rate for the boys.
Horse Racing Tips: A 7/1 NAP tops our best Kempton bets tonight
We’ll have contributions from our resident tipster as well as the chief sports writer, Paul Hayward, racing correspondent, Marcus Armytage and our Centaur correspondent, Alan Tyers. Stays further than 2m and loves heavy ground so has to be a serious player. Mullins-trained Douvan ‘drifting like a barge’ in the betting, according to Matt Chapman. Altior sees off Min to retain his unbeaten record over obstacles. Altior’s Champion Chase victory was his 13th win in his last 13 races – that’s also Nicky Henderson’s fifth victory in the Queen Mother Champion Chase. Pre-race favourite Cause of Causes is right at the back of the field.
David Pipe sends a rare runner on the 710-mile round trip to Newcastle on Thursday
- I had Behind The Wire in at 5/2, he won strongly at an SP of 7/2 from 4/1.
- Chef D’Oeuvre won unchallenged on desperate ground at Hereford and that piece of form is difficult to evaluate.
- Contributing to creating and maintaining this Futurity Trophy Weekend 6f Handicap Preview are at hand, Andy and Darren.
- He has blitzed the best of the Irish this season, and he did the same to the best of the British and Irish here last season over hurdles.
- Good to soft has a similar, if slightly more consistent for prior winners of one to three on the same ground, profile.
- Those unaccessorized won 32 handicap chases from 786 runners (4.07%, the lowest in the sample).
- She’s usually very consistent but never showed up at Yarmouth last time.
Back in fourth at Naas was Nara, who really has looked a Boodles project on her two starts on Irish shores so far. The reapplication of the hood looks a smart move, as she was a bit keen pre-race and I don’t expect to see her in the paddock at Cheltenham until the bell for jockeys-up goes, at which point it’ll be straight in and straight out again. There should be more to come once she learns to take her racing better, for all you’d struggle to say she’s been thrown in here.
Grand National 2023 sweepstake: Download and print off MailOnline’s essential kit for the year’s biggest race
If you can find an in-form horse, with strong recent form figures, a high Racing Post Rating and reasonably generous odds you could be on to a winner, so don’t be afraid to get involved. By doing those simple steps you’ve already started to read the form, albeit at its simplest. You already know that the better the form figures the better the chance and the shorter the likely odds.
Horse racing tips: This 16-1 chance won this race a year ago and returns from just a 3lb higher mark
- Churchstonewarrior could be a playable alternative – going slower could suit him.
- He’s no longer an each way price so I hope he’ll go very close to winning.
- Remarkably, backing all such runners returned an SP profit of 35 points.
- It’s crucial to stay updated with reliable sources to make well-informed decisions when placing your bets.
- At 16-1 and bigger, with extra places on offer, that makes plenty of appeal.
- Dating back centuries, horseracing has been one of the iconic landmarks of UK culture.
- We’ve gone through all FIVE cards on Tuesday so here’s what we’re backing.
- Just an even gallop in prospect in all likelihood despite the large field.
Taking 4-1 as an example, a successful £1 bet would yield a return of £5 – the £4 winnings plus the stake. A horse with a string of 1s by their name is likely to be a lot shorter in the betting than one with 0s, for example. Fresh always runs his race but may lack a yard of pace these days. Two Tempting finished ahead of a few of these at Chester and is always underestimated in the betting.
Other Principal races at Doncaster Racecourse
There are many factors to consider when looking for racing tips. He was much improved at Kempton last time when rattling home and he’s had a little nudge down the weights. The only place to get Templegate’s tips first – and at the best prices – is by joining Sun Racing’s brilliant Members Enclosure.
- The ex-French four-year-old, who joined Karl Burke for the start of the year, travelled from Middleham to Newcastle on 16 March with a record of one win from 15 attempts.
- We provide racecards for fixtures on both At The Races and Racing UK, as well as for tomorrow’s racing – for racecards for tomorrow, just click the date selector and check tomorrow’s date.
- Ignoring the highly unpredictable handicap chase segment, there are some consistent negative factors worth keeping in mind throughout Cheltenham Festival week.
- Applying those negative filters would have left 375 qualifiers.
- The average winning rating in that time, bar Lord Windermere, was a touch over 171.
- O’Faolains Boy set a fair but not searing tempo, aided and abetted by Smad Place, in 2016, the beneficiary of which was the handily-ridden Don Cossack.
- Betting systems are touted far and wide these days, with some actually having the stats to show that they’re effective.
Delta Work is the reigning champ, having retained his crown a year ago, and bids for the three-peat (as they say across the pond – yuk). He’s knocking on a bit now, eleven years young, but that didn’t stop his mate Tiger Roll from bagging his own hat-trick (that’s better) at the same age. When Delta Work won this last year he prepped with a 13 length 6th of eight in the Boyne Hurdle at Navan; this year he’s prepped with a 15 length 6th of eight in the same race, so we all know where we are with him. He handles wet ground fine – it’s wetter on the infield track than the Old and New Courses – and knows his way home blindfold around there. I mean, I expect this to be well run and the top two in the market – who are clearly the best two horses in the field – have had persistent jumping frailties. While they’re comfortably the most likely pair for the exacta, that’s not the way to bet.
The UK runners did close the gap in 2022, after a dreadful 2021. Only time will tell, but you have to expect the Irish to come out on top overall once more. For many, the Cheltenham Festival is the highlight of not just the National Hunt season, but the whole racing year, writes Dave Renham. In front of a packed and enthralled gathering at South Kensington Holiday Inn, London Racing Club’s annual ‘best of breed’ Cheltenham Preview Evening unfurled.
Wolverhampton Tips
His Grade I success at Naas last time was achieved with authority and we know that he can battle when needed. TOPOFTHEGAME fits the usual profile of winners in this trappy puzzle in that he is relatively lightly-raced and progressive. He has also shown form here as have 80 per cent of the winners during the past 10 years. The manner in which he travelled easily and then stayed on strongly at Sandown last time has the mark of a smart performer who is ahead of his mark. William Henry beat Topofthegameinto fourth place at Kempton in January but that fast track and a lack of pace in the race were against the selection and he should turn the tables. Mount Mews reverts to hurdles after some disappointing chase efforts and would have claims on his best form, were he to be reinvigorated by the smaller obstacles.
She beat Dinoblue last time out in a listed Mares chase giving her weight and Dinoblue looked the winner of Wednesdays Grand Annual before hitting the last 2 fences and ruining her chance, staying on strongly to finish a good second. This looks very open between the top four or five in the market, none of which would be a surprise winner. Mystical Power and Tullyhill are a coin toss for which one finishes ahead, my suspicion being that Mystical Power might edge that side bet. The former has his trainer’s long term Supreme record very much in his favour, but his trainer’s recent form very much not. On balance, unless he drifts to a double figure price, I’ll let him beat me – if he did drift he’d be playable win only, I think. Slade Steel has a top trainer and top form behind Ballyburn (who was a strong favourite for this before defecting to the Gallagher).
At the last five Festivals, they have collectively bagged 82 of the 140 races. Throw in Henry de Bromhead – whose team is bolstered by the high profile addition of the Cheveley Park bluebloods – and Dan Skelton and you have six handlers responsible for two-thirds of the Festival winners in the last five years. Between them, they’ll be long odds-on to take at least half of the 28 prizes on offer next week. That brace of novice G1’s, the second of which was at beyond three miles, advertised his prospective Gold Cup claims, something a facile match score over The Big Breakaway did little to rebuke.
30 Supreme Novices’ Hurdle (Grade 1, 2m 1/2f)
- He has had problems this season but is back in top form at home and has the soft ground that he relishes.
- If, on the other hand, there was no obvious pace horse – or a single front runner – we should probably be more interested in the 111% fast finisher, which has shown its ability to quicken takingly off a pedestrian pace.
- The trouble with highly rated winners of the Gold Cup is that their rating is testament to their ability and that, naturally, is not missed by the market.
- He goes off at even-money after being punted into odds-on before the start.
- In this article I will attempt to break down the facts and figures going back as far as 2008.
- The British handicapper seems not to be on the same page with his European counterparts, ranking Irish form more highly and French form lower.
- Saint Roi is interesting – “jockey admitted falling off” last time.
He is not a guaranteed runner, hence the insurance caveat of NRNB, but this race is looking less and less clear cut by the day. Easysland was expected to bolt up before flopping at the November meeting; he was then expected to race in France as a preparation but skipped that, too, so comes in off that solitary, below par, effort. He could easily bounce back but is not the ‘gimme’ he looked going into the November meeting.
If the ground dries out, it might be that connections of Honeysuckle decide to run over this two-and-a-half mile trip rather than the extended two of the Champion Hurdle. The hallmark of those runs, and indeed her run style generally, is being held together off the pace before cruising through to prevail comfortably. In so doing it is hard to peg the level of her form exactly, always leaving the impression there is more in the tank. Lightly raced, as is often the modus operandi with Willie Mullins’ better mares, Concertista has run just twice this term. She beat the same mare, Minella Melody, by nearly two lengths in a Grade 2 in November and then by more than six lengths in a Grade 3 at the turn of the year.